Sino-US relations are unusually quiet. Enjoy while it lasts

The US-China relationship has been remarkably quiet and unremarkable during the past month or so, in contrast to the turbulence that has defined the previous few years.

For the most part, tensions have not increased, and there have been no high-profile events , despite the typical criticism of China. There has been a peculiar "quiet" about things, despite the looming potential threat of Donald Trump.

Beijing also prefers the "quiet," which is to be expected given that China always maintains the policy of never "rocking the boat" during an election year – with the extra risk of worsening its own situation. All of this stands in stark contrast to 2020, when the then Trump administration purposefully severed ties with China in an attempt to win back the election amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

Ultimately, it seems that domestic political events have absorbed and diverted both parties in the United States. Developments in the US news cycle have happened in a spectacular and erratic manner. The shocking performance that Biden gave during the debate, the calls for him to resign, the attempt on Trump's life, and Biden's eventual decision to actually resign and support Kamala Harris have all shocked the public. All of us had practically expected Trump to run for president again, but now he's in serious trouble once more. Thus, the GOP is making every effort to paint Harris in a negative light.

The events in the Middle East have also greatly diverted American attention on the international stage. In an effort to stop a bigger war from breaking out, America has launched a significant diplomatic and military operation in the region in response to Israel's killing of Hamas leader in Tehran and Iran's threat of catastrophic retribution.

Recognizing that the Gaza conflict continues to be a major source of frustration for their own supporters, the Biden administration is likewise committed to bringing an end to this bloody war in order to avoid casting a shadow over the election campaign and inciting a backlash among young voters. Despite Israel's objections, Biden wants to be able to claim that he enforced a ceasefire and therefore "brought peace."

Due to these internal and external distractions, China is currently a less important concern. Because the Biden administration probably believes that raising the ante on China at this time will only strengthen the extreme hawks in the Republican Party, it is politically disadvantageous to intensify tensions; for this reason, the US has greatly reduced the intensity of its provocations about China's "sensitive issues."

Similar to this, a recent agreement reached with the Philippines has temporarily calmed down one of the worst US-China flashpoints that arose in the South China Sea. Once more, in an attempt to avert a crisis at this crucial juncture, the US probably approved of Manila's compromise.

Likewise, China welcomes the cooling of tensions so that it can concentrate on advancing diplomacy, stabilizing its economy, and achieving stability in international relations. Even in the worst-case scenarios, China has attempted to handle its economic relationship with the United States steadily and carefully, even if a complete "course correction" is feasible.

Beijing's strategic considerations include increasing decoupling, forming a coalition against it, and avoiding a fundamental division of the international system, notwithstanding the general lack of optimism. Of course, for the last three years, that has been the cornerstone of the Biden administration's foreign policy.

However, the duration of this "cool" and "quiet" phase is unknown. The US foreign policy is subject to abrupt changes based on domestic political exigencies, and much of this is dependent on the November election outcome. While it would be disastrous if Trump were to return, Harris' candidacy would also be mysterious and unpredictable.

What does appear clear, however, is that the US and China will continue to compete in some way. It's been placed on "pause" while other things take center stage, but it's by no means ended. Enjoy the peace while it lasts.

(The author, a postgraduate student of Chinese studies at Oxford University, is an English analyst on international relations. The views are his own.)