US stocks close mixed in choppy trade

US stocks ended mixed on Monday in the roller-coaster trading session as investors' anxiety over a potential economic slowdown and persistent inflation remained elevated.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 349.26 points, or 0.91 percent, to 37,965.6. The S&P 500 sank 11.83 points, or 0.23 percent, to 5,062.25. The Nasdaq Composite Index increased by 15.48 points, or 0.10 percent, to 15,603.26.

Nine of the 11 primary S&P 500 sectors ended in red, with real estate and materials leading the laggards by losing 2.40 percent and 1.65 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, communication services and technology went up 1.03 percent and 0.32 percent, respectively.

Earlier in the day, all three major US stock indexes hit their lowest levels in more than a year, reflecting deepening concern across Wall Street. The CBOE Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX and widely regarded as Wall Street's fear gauge, surged past 60 points for the first time since August 2024, before settling back to 46.35 by the afternoon session.

Markets briefly rallied mid-morning after a news report suggested that Trump might be considering a 90-day pause on tariff implementations. However, the gains quickly evaporated after White House officials denied the report, pushing equities back into negative territory before a late-session rebound.

"Margin calls are going out as we speak," said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. "For a third straight day investors in US equity markets have turned (a) huge thumbs down on the White House Liberation Day tariffs which have rocked Wall Street."

US President Trump made a new threat to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods as he requested China to withdraw retaliatory tariffs on US goods.

Adding to the day's developments, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent posted on social media that Trump had directed him to initiate negotiations with Japan's government following what Bessent described as a "very constructive" phone conversation between the two leaders. Bessent also said: "I look forward to our upcoming productive engagement regarding tariffs, non-tariff trade barriers, currency issues, and government subsidies. I appreciate the Japanese government's outreach and measured approach to this process."

"The president is losing the confidence of business leaders around the globe...this is not what we voted for," wrote Bill Ackman, billionaire head of Pershing Square, on X. "The president has an opportunity on Monday to call a time out and have the time to execute on fixing an unfair tariff system. Alternatively, we are heading for a self-induced, economic nuclear winter, and we should start hunkering down."

If Trump's tariffs push the US economy into a recession, chip stocks could have at least another 20 percent to fall, according to Citi. "We believe the biggest risk to the semi sector is a recession resulting from tariffs," Chris Danely, a managing director at the bank, wrote to clients in a recent note.

If the tariffs continue for another month, it is highly likely the supply chain will "freeze up" given uncertainty, drastically lower order rates/inventory, and result in lower guidance across the board - similar to COVID, said Danely.

Notably, CEOs were already growing more pessimistic about the US economy. "Most CEOs I talk to would say we are probably in a recession right now," said BlackRock CEO Larry Fink on Monday. "One CEO specifically said the airline industry is a proverbial bird in a coal mine - canary in the coal mine - and I was told that the canary is sick already," he added.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon also warned Monday that Trump's tariffs are likely to push up prices on both domestic and imported goods, placing additional pressure on an already cooling US economy.